The Tinkerbell Effect describes things that are thought to exist only because people believe in them. Agencies are probably one of those things, running on confidence and magic, as John Hegarty once said. But this last year has not been kind to confidence as £251bn has been wiped off the UK economy, clients have retracted, agencies have had to reshape, and the soul of their cultures and client relationships have been diminished without the oxygen of place and people. 

Keep it light though, Will. 

Actually, there is lots to be confident about. And even if there wasn’t, it’s time to think of Tinkerbell and create it again. As the warmer days arrive and something resembling the Old World comes back, here are some reasons to be positive drawn from new evidence uncovered during the pandemic about what the best businesses do and need. But maybe more than that they are a reminder of how we show up as an industry. If we believe we can, we will and if we don’t, we won't.

1. There’s money in them hills

Britons are sitting on £192bn of lockdown cash. We could buy Intel, Samsung or Jeff Bezos with that. In fact, the Centre for Economics and Business Research estimates a £50bn spending spree once restrictions are lifted - most of it on all the things we haven’t been able to do. The rest of it will be saved or invested, with search interest for investing now at a five-year high, up 40% in the last six months versus the six months before. Throw in a bit of loose monetary policy, the fact the FTSE 100 has been soaring since October 2020 and that most executives are optimistic of improvements over the next six months - and it feels quite shiny. The boss of Barclays even predicts the biggest boom since 1948.

2. CEOs want creativity and focus  

In 2018 IBM asked CEOs what quality will matter most in the next 5 years. They said ‘Creativity’. In 2021, the biggest themes were ‘Focus’ and ‘Discarding old traditions’. Taken together it sounds a lot like what we sell - when we do it right. If we’re showing up as the Commercial Creativity people, not just The Ad Guys, offering up simplicity and transformation, the big conversations might open up nicely because that’s what they’re after. And the time is now: studying the recessions of the 1980s, early 1990s, 2001 and 2008 has shown companies that shed old habits and invest in innovation lap their competitors, something that’s surely been accelerated as business models and mindsets change because of that thing that’s been going around (see Scott Galloway’s 'The Great Dispersion').

3. Brands want missions and trust

The study went further and looked at what high-performing businesses are doing versus low-performers. While on the supply side we might feel at peak purpose, the demand side isn’t done yet: the best businesses identified creating purpose and mission as “critical” - at a rate 53% higher than low performers - and, in a world “of declining faith in institutions”, over-indexed on pursuing ways to create “deep and sustainable trust” with people. That sounds a lot like setting brands on a mission and winning people over, something our Tesco case study tells us works handsomely - Britons went from their lowest ever trust to their highest and Tesco their worst quarter of corporate history to their best result in 11 years by updating the mission and deepening the trust. 

4. The new empathetic design leadership 

The interviews with 3,000 CEOs in 2021 revealed a new kind of leadership emerging, one that required a design mindset, blending empathy, sensing, data and strategic chops to create experiences and ecosystems. Underperforming businesses interestingly focused more on insights, especially from their competitors, but didn’t seem to do much with them. Outperformers focused more on the Experience to surprise people with what they didn’t realise they wanted. They made leaps and got on with it while others enjoyed pointless data jacuzzis. In this new world, ‘Emotional Experience’ is the new competitive advantage. We’ve seen this up close with audi.co.uk, which BBH looks after with IBM: new functionality produces nice metrics bumps but when wrapped emotionally delivers even bigger ones. That sounds a lot like classic agency skills directed onto new canvases. 

5. The best need help

The study also looked at how successful businesses are connecting with customers and building that crucial trust. Outperformers put Partnerships first on their list. Underperformers put it last. It seems great businesses recognise that having fewer, better partnerships is more important - and valuable - than ever. In short, they need the help.

So while you slap yourself in the face in front of the mirror in the 3 minutes you have between Zooms, also remind yourself the spending will return, our skills are needed and partnership is being sought out. We sell a rare kind of magic. It just only shows up when we believe in it.

Sources

1. Centre for Economics and Business Research

2. https://www.brandwatch.com/blog/react-covid-19-stock-market-investors

3. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment

4. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56940141

5. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048733315000827#abs0005

6. https://www.ibm.com/thought-leadership/institute-business-value/report/ceo

7. https://www.ibm.com/downloads/cas/K1OGEMA9

8. https://www.focusvision.com/resources/forrester-study-commissioned-by-focusvision/?utm_source=press-release&utm_medium=referral

9. IBM https://www.ibm.com/thought-leadership/institute-business-value/report/ceo